The seismography of catfish

After it has been raining, showering, drizzling and mizzling for almost a complete day... And after the writing and reading seems to lead nowhere today... It is tempting to dig for a dark thought inside oneself and to celebrate some little Wednesday blues.

So I pondered about my chances to get hit by an earthquake.

Of course, this is not an unusual thought here. After the big earthquake in 1906 and another one in 1989, everybody is waiting for The Big One. So, I googled the odds. The official statement is that there is a a 62% chance that before the year 2032, the San Francisco Bay area will be hit by at least one earthquake of the magnitude 6.7 or greater - says the U.S. Geological Survey, Earthquake Hazards Program (USGS). They provide real-time shaking maps for California. Above photograph shows the recent shaking map, indicating that there has been a microearthquake today, just when I composed that posting, at San Leandro (little red dot; http://quake.wr.usgs.gov)

But what if I want to know before it happens? Of course, I could purchase an online earthquake forecast. I can get it for my region for the next 5-7 days - but only after my payment of $3,000.00 has been received (www.earthquakeforecast.com). A true alternative is a study group that takes "moon phases, animal behavior, human behavior, micro earthquakes, seismic gaps (...)" into their extensive risk calculations. As we learn, monitoring catfish seems especially promising. Even if I sound a bit ironic here, I believe they have a point! (www.quakeprediction.com).

Earthquakewise, I live a bit on the dangerous side - especially while asleep. My landlord is either a true comedian or completely ignorant to Earthquake Safety: I sleep under a huge picture, plus there are two massive table lamps right behind my sleeping head. Oh well. According to the site with the catfish calculations, my risk of being shivered by an earthquake tomorrow is only 23%.
Good night.